Faster is Wider

I see yet another “broadband productivity” report seriously underestimates the gains to be had by ultrafast broadband.

“The survey by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research found a productivity effect of having broadband, compared to not having broadband, of about 10 percent across all firms.

“The estimates indicated a marginally stronger impact on productivity for firms in rural relative to urban areas, but the differences were not significant.”

This is the usual result of government surveys. Typically they are absurdly conservative with new technology and hopelessly underestimate its impact, because they are trained not to think beyond the currently achievable. They see productivity gains in terms of doing internal processes and external communication faster. They lack the ability to see the broader picture – the picture you get when everyone has ultrafast access to the net. They are in the same category of people who see fibre to the home as merely faster access to pornography.

An industry commentator, Paul Budde, has a slightly wider view on the subject:

“High-speed broadband linked to an open network would open the infrastructure to other sectors and it was those sectors that would provide improved productivity, Mr Budde said.

“Most of these sectors were under government control and operated within closed silos.

“In order to make productivity gains the government would first have to direct those sectors to use the new fibre network. That would activate those sectors to start building their own business models which would show what the real productivity gains were.”

He is probably correct in his observations. However, he also overlooks the giant potential of fibre to the home rather than simply fibre linking businesses. Homes are no longer passive conduits to which information is sent, but dynamic nodes in the internet that can store information, process it and return it. If the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence guys can do it with today’s technology, imagine how much can be achieved if everyone is linked to high speed connections. Complex 3d graphic renderings could take hours, instead of days. We might even manage to produce a sensible climate model that predicts real events. People could actually stroll through “real” virtual malls and examine the items they want to buy , possibly even “touch” them. It might become possible to “house calls” again (in a virtual sense).  New Zealand might even become a giant data store for the world, being a stable, remote country with little internal strife and a low-profile global presence.

There is a great deal more to consider than faster e-mail and movies on demand, for those with a little vision.

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