Why Labour is Dead
Phil the Thrill has just announced that the 33% gap between National and Labour in the TV3 poll is because of the “honeymoon”. Amazing. Nearly a year down the line and Phil is waiting for the “gloss to wear off”.
If anything explains why Labour is doomed (unless somebody pulls out a (metaphorical) axe and chops Phil), it is this inexplicable deficit of concern over the stunning lack of traction in the polls of any of National’s frequent errors. I daily read commentators in blogs and the media decrying National’s apparent lack of political management and yet the polls remain absurdly high.
This is NOT because National is doing a good job. Far from it.
This is because Labour has not regrouped and formed a proper opposition. Sure they have plenty of skilled debaters and daily score some hits on National (such a big target!). They have plenty of political skill available.
What they have not got is even a shred of coherent opposition policy. What policy they have is all rehashed stuff from the last few years in government. Exactly the stuff that New Zealanders kicked them out of power for.
It is therefore small wonder that the New Zealand public keeps endorsing National. They have no alternative. Even John Minto (John Minto for goodness’ sake!) can see this. Yet Phil the Thrill sits there waiting for the veil of deception to fall from New Zealand’s eyes so that the average Kiwi will see the evilness of National and run back to Labour.
Bad News, Phil. Most Kiwis can’t see a lot of difference between National and Labour. Until you give them a reason to come back, they’ll stay right where they are.
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Oct 20 09 8:31 am
Yes, but where does he go?
If he goes right and demands we do stuff like shrink ACC back to its core workers compensation he loses his core constituency. If he goes further left he gets laughed at.
Trevor has tried the middle road of Maori bashing but thats like a snake biting its tail.. besides, when Don did it he had a wealth of research to back him.
In fact there’s the problem right there.. there’s no current research underpinning his Parliamentary team’s efforts.. when there’s very little room to move left or right he should do the research and tell the (self evident) truth.
For example there’s rich pickings in the ACC debate about why we have two classes of disability.. one which “rewards” the accident disability with 80% of salary compared to under 30% of salary for those disabled by disease. There’s even a recent Appeals Court decision (Trevithick case) where the Court held that its discrimination under the HRA.. but the Govt can legally get away with it. Sorting *that* out would be a real coup.
And so it goes.. when in doubt, try the truth and drill down to the real issues. Thats something thats perfect for Opposition parties.
JC
Oct 20 09 10:43 am
The polls gap won’t last, two years is a long time, National are totally gaff prone, the gloss will wear off, Labour are much better political operators, people were just tired of the Rainbow faction taking over.
Oct 20 09 5:55 pm
I agree MacDoctor that it would be nice to have an opposition that stood for something. But to be fair to Phil, he is following exactly the approach that worked for National.
When they tried to stand for something they got demonised (Don Brash). When they stood for nothing other than ‘same policies, nicer managers’ under John Key, they got elected.
So long as Labour are prepared to wait until the NZ public get tired of National, their turn will come around again. Unfortunately the NZ media, driven by the NZ public, reward that behaviour. People who stand for something need to be told they are wrong. People who stand for nothing are probably just like us, so we should elect them. And he has such a nice smile.
Problem for Goff is that if he follows this strategy, he won’t be around to be Prime Minister. I suspect he already knows that though, in the meantime he draws a salary as Leader of the Opposition, which is a reasonable recompense for doing nothing and waiting.
Oct 20 09 8:25 pm
PaulL: But to be fair to Phil, he is following exactly the approach that worked for National.
Yes, but National follow this policy when it was clear that the mood of New Zealanders was turning against Labour. If Goff waits for that, he is condemning Labour to at least three terms in opposition.
Not that I will shed tears over that, but a decent opposition might keep a very sloppy National on its toes.
Oct 21 09 8:59 am
Agree it would be nice to have a decent opposition. The point is, there is no evidence in NZ that that leads to being reelected. If you do some innocuous and populist things immediately, you might be out for only two terms instead of three. It’s as good a strategy as any.