Dangerous Calculation
So now it is official. John Key has said that National will not support John Boscawen’s bill, not even to select committee. He has even said that he will not allow it to be a conscience vote, so he is taking no chances. That is, effectively, that. Parents who smack will remain criminals and will be certainly targets for the next Labour government, whenever that will be.
Even though I called Key an idiot in my last post on this topic, I am certain that he is no fool. He has clearly looked at the political scene and made the following observation: the people most upset about his resistance to changing the law have nowhere to go. It is actually greatly in his interest to haemorrhage some support to Act, the closer they get to 5%, the less they have to rely on Rodney Hide winning Epsom. Otherwise Act may eventually suffer the fate of NZ First.
Talking about NZ First, I see there is some speculation that Winston might use this to try and drum up support for NZ First again (I can’t remember where I read this, so I can’t link to it). Although Winston is a past master at resurrection, I think he would be hard pressed to turn this issue into a vote winner. The majority of people likely to move from National over this issue, will move to the right of the spectrum. I don’t think it will have a lot of traction at the centre.
Apart from the vague spectre of a revived Winston -whom Key can ignore anyway, as he still wouldn’t need him or treat with him- there is no much political downside for Key. He has always been very certain that he does not want to fight this battle in the political arena (he would do the same with an abortion bill as well). He has, therefore, put the issue to bed as fast as possible without really touching the issue. He could have gone the select committee route, but that would have just let the issue resurface later, possibly even near the election where he wouldn’t have his current headroom of 26% ahead of his nearest rival.
So Key has done this in a politically calculated fashion that I find, frankly, quite chilling. It is the wrong decision ethically and morally, no matter how much it may make sense politically. There are tens of thousands of children in New Zealand who will not be disciplined in any meaningful fashion over the next decade, purely because of this. It is a dangerous piece of political calculation that utterly fails the people of New Zealand.
Sounds familiar. Now where else did I see a scheming politician who did not give a stuff about the people of New Zealand?
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Aug 27 09 11:52 am
Surely you were never under any illusions, prior to this debacle, that Key was cut from a different cloth to Clark?
One of the reasons I never liked Key as leader was precisely because underneath that smiling, all things to all men, exterior was a cold, hard calculating opportunist.
This issue simply helped the veil to slip.
Madeleine´s last blog ..Video of Matthew Flannagan Speaking on Moral Relativism
As you probably know from reading my blog, I have always thought that Key was much cleverer and nastier than he looks – hence my vast amusement when the (sub)Standard tried to paint him as a fool. But this moral failure I view as bad as Clark’s pandering to Winston last year…
Aug 27 09 12:51 pm
Heh, I take it that “last blog” link is a coincidence!
But I agree with your analysis. I’d add that NZ conservatives (i.e. the National party) have an extremely poor record rolling back social changes foisted on them by the left.
To quote Lord of the Rings – there never was much hope.
Aug 27 09 3:05 pm
“NZ First again (I can’t remember where I read this, so I can’t link to it)”
NZF has relaunched its website. They have made no specific mention of the smacking issue but you can be sure close to the election it will be a big issue.
However, NZF promises binding referenda. I am sure that will get a few votes. I am sure there are people who are angry with both the Nats and Labour but will not vote ACT for what they believe ACT did in the past and they may go for NZF.
I wonder if Key has factored NZF into the mix.
It is very unfortunate that Brash got rolled by Key. I believe that Brash put the good of New Zealand ahead of his own ego. I cannot say that about Key. He is very much like Clark.
Key did not waste any time change the legislation about knighthoods. I bet that is his next goal.
Aug 27 09 3:24 pm
Dr Muriel Newman has published an article on the NZ Centre for Political Research website, linking government failure to address child abuse with s59, the recent Families Commission report, and the DPB. It is a fascinating read and a good sum-up of how these separate issues link together I think. The government is really looking the other way with regard to this issue.
http://www.nzcpr.com/weekly194.htm
It’s huge that the Families Commission has avoided all mention of the issue that drives much of the damage to NZ’s social fabric- divorce, separation, and family structure, and the impact this has on outcomes for our kids.