Calm Before the Storm

Stuff reports that Swine flu cases are on the decline. This would be the experience of the large group practice I am currently working in. However, I think that Dr. Fran McGrath is being a little optimistic:

“Deputy director of public health Fran McGrath said this might be because people had been taking note of the message to stay home if they were sick, to help slow the spread of influenza.”

Don’t pat yourself on the back yet, Fran. There is usually a lull in flu cases from the end of July to mid-August. There is then another peak of flu cases in the latter half of August and early September. Judging by the infectivity of Swine Flu, almost all flu cases in the second peak will be Swine flu and the peak will probably be unusually short, sharp and big.

Just as well that Swine Flu appears to be a mild to moderate flu which actually tends to spare the elderly (who have some immunity). It may even be that our death rate from flu this year will be unusually low.

Remember, in medicine, paranoia is considered a virtue…

Additional

Now here’s a real plague to get agitated about.

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