Swine Flu Update 18
Virologists are now saying that Swine Flu has rapidly become the dominant strain of seasonal flu. The reason is simple. The new influenza is extremely infectious because few people under the age of fifty have any sort of cross immunity against it (those who caught the 1975 swine flu have a small amount of cross immunity, probably the reason why Swine Flu appears to spare older people, unlike standard flu). Since it spreads very much faster that the ordinary seasonal flu, it has taken over as the dominant strain. ESR is reporting that about 75% of the flus in the community are Swine Flu.
We should all be very thankful that, for the vast majority of us, Swine flu will be a fairly mild illness, milder than most seasonal flus.
Most practices are reporting about three times as much flu as is normal for this time of year and, as I have mentioned in my previous update, this is not entirely bad news, indicating as it does that the disease is quite mild. Our stats currently indicate about a 10% admission rate with about 2% critically ill, which is identical to the US, but, as I have also commented in my last update, most cases being swabbed to confirm the disease are either quite ill, or at risk of becoming ill, so this is not a good indication of the severity of the disease at all.
What this means, in practical terms is that:
- The current flu vaccine is almost completely useless. I would certainly not be rushing to get your free shot if you haven’t had one yet.
- If you have a flu-like illness (temperature above 38 degrees, a sore throat and/or cough) the chances are high that you have swine flu. Unless you are experiencing shortness of breath, a fast heart rate or dizziness, or you have risk factors for severe disease (pregnancy, severe asthma, heart disease or morbid obesity), you probably should hibernate at home until your symptoms subside.
- Attempts by the hospitals to limit the spread of this are almost certainly futile. Limiting the number of visitors is a waste of time. It will only take one visitor stupid enough to come visiting with an active flu to infect the entire ward.
- Public health should now give some thought to removing restrictions on Tamiflu in private practice as most flu-like illnesses will be H1N1 and sensitive. There is an adequate supply in the public hospitals for the sicker patients and use of the drug should not encourage resistance. Restrictions should only be continued if it is still realistic to expect a shortage.
The MacDoctor now suspects he has just had the silly disease. Tamiflu did, in fact, shorten the course of the disease, but was not exactly a “cure”.
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Jul 12 09 12:29 pm
Do you think that you had swine flu because Tamiflu was effective and seasonal flu is almost 100% resistant to Tamiflu?
I had flu symptoms start on 19 June. Would you care to hazard a guess as to the probability of it being swine flu? According to the article you linked to swine flu has only become dominant in the past week.
Why would the ESR virologist say the following?
“The speed at which it has replaced seasonal influenza as the predominant strain just within the last week is incredible … it’s quite alarming.”
Kiwi Polemicist´s last blog ..• Swine flu stupidity: Hospital visits restricted over swine flu fears
Jul 12 09 12:57 pm
I have coronary heart disease, one blocked artery, and another two furring up. I do not suffer any breathlessness, although I easily get tired. I have to go for heart bypass in Sept 09
Do I need to worry, should I approach my GP for Tamiflu just in case I become infected. It may take time to get hold of Tamiflu once infected. That time factor may be critical
Jul 12 09 1:20 pm
I am so surprised that this is still so prevalent. I must say, that I am so relieved that our family has taken extra precautions by boosting our immunities with probiotics. We take Vidazorb every day and with everything that I have read on probiotics, I think we are doing a good thing as a family. Thanks for the update! Caroline
Jul 12 09 5:30 pm
KP: Do you think that you had swine flu because Tamiflu was effective and seasonal flu is almost 100% resistant to Tamiflu?
I think I had swine flu because I had been in contact with several confirmed cases recently, and, as you point out, Tamiflu appear to work to a certain extent.
I had flu symptoms start on 19 June. Would you care to hazard a guess as to the probability of it being swine flu?
Mid June Swine Flu was still quite rare so you chances of your 19th June flu being swine flu are slim. Last week it was estimated that about 30% of all cases were swine flu. Now ESR is saying it is about 75%. That is very, very fast – hence the surprise of the virologist.
Jul 12 09 5:40 pm
Piggin Hell:
Certainly you are in the defined “at risk” group. The department of public health would certainly give you Tamiflu if, and only if, you developed a flu-like illness (Chills and/or temperature above 38 plus cough and/or sore throat). You don’t have to wait until you are very unwell before seeing your doctor – any flu symptoms would entitle you to Tamiflu.
However, they are still not giving it out unless you have flu as many people (probably more than half the population) will not get the flu.
Jul 12 09 6:39 pm
Is it true that vomiting can be a symptom too or is one chuck in the presence of temperature and cough and a runny nose evidence of a tummy bug only?
Also, does Tamiflu come in liquid form (for kids who cannot swallow pills)?
How dangerous is it for a 7 year old to have it?
Is there a good online site, one that is written in specifics instead of being aimed at 12 year old comprehension levels, that details the symptoms precisely?
Madeleine´s last blog ..Published: Boonin’s Defense of the Sentience Criteria – A Critique
Jul 12 09 6:58 pm
Madeleine:
Vomiting is an unreliable sign of swine flu – most kids vomit with fevers.
Tamiflu is capsule-only. Relenza is a nasal spray and is considerably easier to use in children.
Swine Flu seems to be a fairly benign disease in healthy children, unless they have serious lung or heart problems.
The best source of online info is probably the CDC site. The health professional section of the MoH information is reasonable and is mostly understandable to lay people.
Jul 13 09 12:30 am
If only 75% of flus are swine flu then I wouldn’t go quite so far as to say that the free influenza injections are a waste of time. 25% of them are not swine flu.
Pharmacists can make up a suspension of Tamiflu using capsules. I dispensed some for 2 children today.
75% is, of course, just this week. At this rate of increase it will be 99% in a matter of three or four weeks. It will take you at least two weeks to build sufficient immunity to combat seasonal flu, even if you had the Jab tomorrow. Hence it is now a little pointless.
Jul 13 09 8:20 am
I know you think the googleflu site is unscientific and to be fair even Google say it is a proxy but it does seem to have tracked this rather well. It currently climbs to the roof so if it is a proxy, the next few weeks will be tough.
Jul 13 09 11:56 am
Thanks Jim. Those sites are helpful and much more detailed than what I had found.
I think both I and my son have swine flu. I have not had flu in years but what I have is not behaving like a coldand is more flu like (temperature, body aches) but it is much milder than I remember the flu being which fits with what you are saying.
We are both coping fine with the drugs we have in the house and Noah seems to be getting past his (mine has set in after his so I still feel lousy) so I don’t think I’ll bother forking out for Tamiflu at this stage.
In my case it has set off my asthma and my flixotide appears to have expired in 2003… so I may end up at the doctors but otherwise I am sitting here wondering what all the fuss was about – when I first thought my son had it I had moments of panic, I kept jumping to when he had meningitus as a baby and how terrified we all were but now his fever is easing and he is perking up (yelling at his sister as I type) I am not worried at all.
Madeleine´s last blog ..Living Philosophers of Religion
Jul 13 09 5:34 pm
The current flu vaccine is almost completely useless. I would certainly not be rushing to get your free shot if you haven’t had one yet.
“Almost”? I guess you said “almost” because it’s not completely useless. You noted that “those who caught the 1975 swine flu have a small amount of cross immunity, probably the reason why Swine Flu appears to spare older people”. There’s an H1N1 component in the current vaccine, which might provide “a small amount of cross immunity”. Additionally, getting two doses of the flu in a row is a really good way to move from the “healthy” to the “at risk” group.
Not pimping for the vaccine producers, but a case could be made for spending this week’s lotto money to get immunised.
Unfortunately, there is no cross immunity between the seasonal H1N1 flus and swine flu. And the flu vaccine is now free at your GPs, so you don’t even have to spend your lotto money.
Jul 18 09 3:38 pm
Over the last two weeks all eight of my family members have come down with a flu-like illness. My son had a wet cough for a week, followed by a very high fever (39.9) and infected ears. All the adults developed bad mucousy coughs (though not all with fevers) and felt awful to varying degrees. While my husband (who is undergoing chemotherapy) said his felt like a normal cold, my sister developed a sinus infection, my uncle a chest infection, and my father went from fine to penumonia in five days. I had four days of moderate chills and aches, followed by loss of voice and now heavy cold symptoms and headache.
It strikes me as very strange that every single one of us has become sick over such a short period of time, and that several of us have developed other complications. Those who had the flu jab did not escape. What are the chances of it having been swine flu, given that not everyone’s symptoms were classic? There was a confirmed case of H1N1 in a teacher at my son’s daycare recently, though that was a full fortnight before he developed the nasty fever.
Given that my husband is immuno-compromised, I would be relieved if we had gotten it over and done with, so I could stop worrying about it. I was hoping the hospital might have tested my father, but they didn’t.
I’m surprised the hospital did not test your father, I would have thought that that would have been routine, but I am obviously wrong. If your family’s illnesses predominantly fell into the definition of a flu-like illness (Chills and/or temperature above 38 plus cough and/or sore throat), then it is likely you have all had Swine Flu.
Jul 19 09 12:11 am
Thanks for your response. We’ve all had the cough and sore throat, my father and son had fevers with it, my mother and I had muscular aches, and I also had chills. The one that felt least ill, funnily enough, is my chemotherapy-stricken husband. We’ve all had colds before and both Mum and I feel this was more than a normal seasonal cold virus.
I believe the hospital did not test my father because he stubbornly refused to admit he had the flu. He’s still maintaining the pneumonia “just happened” despite the fact we saw the flu come on, saw him spike a fever, and warned him against going on a business trip while he was ill (which he had to return from early).
I hope you’re right and that we’ve now put this nasty virus behind us.
Most of the symptoms of the flu are due to the body’s reaction to it. It is therefore no surprise that your husband, in his immunocompromised state, was the least sick. Of course, had he been very immunocompromised, he may have been in serious trouble with an overwhelming virus infection.
Jul 19 09 12:41 am
Oh, thank you, that makes a lot of sense. He’s not severely immunocompromised yet, thankfully, as he’s only halfway through his treatment. And we sent him off to the doc for some prophilactic antibiotics as soon as he started coughing up brown stuff (ew) to try to avoid any opportunistic bacteria getting comfy in there. Swine flu has been a huge worry to me during his illness because I know how vulnerable he is.
You are welcome, Claire, and I hope your family has now all recovered.
Jul 19 09 12:51 am
The place sounds like a TB ward at the moment, but we’re getting there, thanks!