Swine Flu Update 14

The first death outside of the Americas occurred on Sunday when a 38 year-old mother, Jacqui Fleming, who had recently given birth to a premature son, died of swine flu. Sadly, her baby passed away the following day, from complications of prematurity. He was not positive for H1N1 virus.

Although this is tragic news, it is not unexpected. Jacqui Fleming had a number of severe health problems including seizures and multiple strokes and possibly a heart condition. It is likely that these problems caused the premature birth of her child and also made her susceptible to swine flu.

Margaret Chan, the Director of the World Health Organisation, said in her statement declaring the flu a pandemic last week:

““Without question pregnant women are at increased risk of complications. This heightened risk takes on added importance for a virus, like this one, that preferentially infects younger age groups,” she said.”

I should point out, that thousands of pregnant women catch influenza every year with no complications to their pregnancy and no increased risk of pneumonias. Although American and Mexican statistics indicate a higher rate of complications in pregnant women effected with swine flu, the numbers of pregnant women involved are still too small to draw any statistically valid conclusions. Still, it would be prudent for pregnant women to avoid contact with the swine flu as long as possible. They should also be the first recipients of any vaccine, should any arrive in time to make a difference.

Apparently there are idiots overseas who are hosting “Swine Flu Parties” so that they can all catch it before it mutates into something more serious. This is a dumb idea. Firstly, it is just as likely to mutate into a less serious disease and secondly, even in the US, it is killing 2 cases in every 1,000. 0.2% is not zero. Remember that you have a 70-80% chance of not catching swine flu and therefore not taking that 0.2% risk. Just imagine how you would feel if your child caught H1N1 at a swine flu party and died from it. Would you like to spend the rest of your life wondering if your child would have survived, otherwise? That’s an ugly thought.

I was a little concerned to read that officials have estimated about 4,000 extra admissions over the winter. Based on the US data of a 2% serious illness rate and using only a 20% infectivity rate, I get over 17,000 cases needing hospitalisation. Admittedly, if the Flu is spread over two seasons and vaccination is in progress prior to the next season, this figure may be quite a bit lower. However, 4,000 seems to me to be excessive optimism. I would prepare for at least double that.

Finally, I note that the authorities have stopped giving Tamiflu for contacts, ostensibly to preserve stocks. In reality, they are just acknowledging the movement from an attempted containment phase (always futile, but you’ve got to try) to a delaying action phase. Isolating contacts should cease after the first few cases of swine flu from no known source. The virus will then be out in the community and further curtailment will probably be pointless.

At this rate, the MacDoctor will get over this grotty cold just in time to catch the Swine Flu.

I can’t wait.

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