Predictable Poll
The TV One News poll last night was entirely predicable. The Herald calls this a “Grim Poll Result” but I’m fairly certain National was not expecting anything better.
“David Shearer, Labour, 59 per cent.
Melissa Lee, National, 21 per cent.
Russel Norman, Greens, 15 per cent.
John Boscawen Act, 3.3 per cent.”
Did anyone seriously expect Melissa Lee to be doing any better? So far she has made a fool of herself with silly comments about South Auckland criminals and allowed herself to be manipulated into declaring she would be happy with second place, both errors of the inexperienced. These would probably have been forgivable, but the final approval of a motorway right through the community will not. The timing deliberately torpedoed Lee’s campaign, making it fairly certain that Shearer would win. As I have posted, I think Lee is there to gain experience (in the most brutal way!) and National are most comfortable with a solid majority for David Shearer. This is why:
“Labour may even increase its majority in the seat this weekend, which would be a big boost to the authority of new leader Phil Goff within the Labour Party. (emphasis mine)”
The best thing that could happen to National is that Labour continues its lack-luster performance as a tired, directionless opposition. Especially as Key runs a considerably less tight ship than Clark, making dumb moments from ministers inevitable. An impotent Labour is virtually guaranteed by Mr. Goff. Even his handling of the wonderful gift of Richard Worth shows he can’t keep his mouth shut at the right time. The media was happily doing everything he wanted, aggressively going for Key and Worth to get the whole story out. Then Goff intervenes with “Strikingly beautiful” comments and a time line that has a massive six month hole in it. Thank you, Phil, for defusing the situation. It could have been ugly.
So National get to continue with the Thrill of Phil. Melissa Lee gets her experience and has a couple of years to lick her wounds and harden up. Ravi Musuku gets to feel good about being dumped by National as Lee will almost certainly do worse than he did, against a lesser candidate than Helen Clark. Russel Norman gets to look good. Although it is likely his support will fade a little (like the Greens support in the general election), he will still do heaps better than the previous incumbent and has raised his profile immensely. It is possible that he will push Lee into third place, But he would have to take a fair chunk of the vote off Shearer, as Lee is down to bedrock support. As Norman has taken votes mostly off Lee and Boscawen, I think this is unlikely. But it is still looking like a very creditable result for the Greens.
All-in-all a nice, boring, predictable result for a boring by-election and pretty much the way it will pan out next week.
Wake me up when it is all over.
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Jun 8 09 5:55 pm
If the polls are even roughly accurate those on the centre like National might consider voting for a candidate from a party a little right of centre. If Lee comes third because of the ACT vote it might send a message to Mr Key.
National is obviously a lot better than the previous Labour led coalition but it needs to be steered in the Right direction by ACT.
I personally would not be pushing for tax reductions like some in the ACT Party but I do want tax reductions and do not want them deferred indefinitely to pay for so called global warming and other wasteful commissions like the Children’s Commission and the Families Commission.
I do not want John Key anymore than Ms Clark telling good parents how to parent within reason of course. John Boscawen is committed to getting this unpopular law amended so good parents do not have their names on a CYFS or a Police file.
National is getting a little tougher on crime but that is only because of ACT.
This by-election might seem boring and predictable but no vote is a wasted vote. John Boscawen has given freely both his time and his money for the good of New Zealand before he even got into Parliament. His contribution was invaluable in getting rid of the Electoral Finance Act.
A vote for Boscawen and ACT will help voters get what they wanted at the last general election – a change of policy not just a change of government.