Swine Flu Update 10
I have been keeping tabs on the progress of Swine Flu in the side bar. I note a sudden big jump in numbers in Australia, indicating that there is probably human to human spread there. I suspect that, if that continues, it will finally meet the WHO criteria for pandemic spread (2 regions with epidemic spread). WHO will be a bit reluctant to press the pandemic button because of the hysteria that is likely to generate, so I expect a week or two of procrastination.
Currently, it looks like Swine flu has a mortality rate of about 6 per thousand (and dropping) making it worse than an average flu but nowhere near as dangerous as bird flu or Spanish flu. This is good news for New Zealand because, if it is bedding down in Australia, it will be across the Tasman in a few weeks.
I’m expecting a busy flu season.
Additional
Google has a news aggregator tuned to flu trends which gives you a good idea of the overall incidence of flu in various countries (thanks to Annabel Young for pointing this out to me)
The Herald reports on the arrival of a cruise ship with 13 people testing positive for flu. It is not known whether they have swine flu or not. The department of Public Health are suggesting having 3-5 days of food available in case of emergencies. This is good advice in all circumstances, as it is good preparation for a civil defense emergency. I would add cooking gear, torches and water to that (not for the flu specifically, just for emergencies)
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Jun 4 09 12:24 pm
There is certainly human to human spread in Victoria. It is likely that there are thousands of cases. Mainly in 15-19 year old boys. Moved to the next level of the pandemic plan yesterday. However, because of the mild nature of the infection it is a modified stage. 3 day quarantine for confirmed cases. No quarantine for people in the same household/class etc. Also, schools will no longer close.
Jun 5 09 2:28 am
I think a lot of cases in Australia are cruise ships arriving, in which case they can’t disembark their passengers and are sent to small, uninhabited islands until everyone is swine flu free. However, there is a lot of swine flu in Victoria. Not so much elsewhere in Australia yet although it is winter so it may spread more rapidly.
Jun 5 09 10:23 am
yes i agree Victoria is the flu capitol of Australia though.
Have a look at this scary swine flu report
http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com/Files/swineflu.pdf
I suspect it will not be as exciting as the report. But it will certainly tax our health system to breaking strain.
Jun 5 09 10:32 pm
So be prepared in case schools are closed? Does this mean I can stockpile Sudafed to help ease my symptoms if I am stuck at home with my children??
Yes, and valium, too.