Swine Flu Update 9
Virus researchers are now saying that it is likely that Swine Flu will go pandemic sometime over the next six to nine months. They predict that about a third of the population will contract the disease. That’s a lot of people. The population of the earth is currently about 6.77 billion, so they are predicting a mind-numbing two-and-a-quarter billion cases. Admittedly the vast majority of these cases will be relatively mild – ranging from a scratchy throat for a couple of days through to a week’s worth of misery.
It seems like the original death rate in Mexico was mostly artifact because of this. The vast majority of Mexicans infected with Swine Flu probably thought they had a bit of a cold and did nothing about it. Unlike us pampered westerners, the average Mexican does not have the luxury of seeing a doctor for anything less than dire illness. Thus the actual infection rate was vastly underestimated and the mortality, consequently, overestimated. Even now, the number of confirmed cases in Mexico probably mostly represents only those who became very unwell with the disease.
The World Health Organisation’s announcement put the potential pandemic in perspective:
“Prof Ferguson, who sits on the World Health Organisation’s emergency committee for the outbreak, told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: “This virus really does have full pandemic potential. It is likely to spread around the world in the next six to nine months and when it does so it will affect about one-third of the world’s population.
““To put that into context, normal seasonal flu every year probably affects around 10% of the world’s population every year, so we are heading for a flu season which is perhaps three times worse than usual – not allowing for whether this virus is more severe than normal seasonal flu viruses.”
“His study suggests swine flu could kill four in every 1,000 infected people.”
So. Three times more flu and about 10 times more deaths doesn’t sound so good. On the other hand, 33% infection and 0.4% mortality sounds way better than the New Zealand Pandemic planning scenario of 40% infectivity and 2% mortality. Even so, it will overwhelm our medical facilities, without a doubt. We will probably get off lightly this flu season, but the virus may hit us harder next year.
Based on the WHO estimates, we can expect 2.25 billion cases worldwide and amount 9 million deaths. In New Zealand that would be 1.4 million cases (mostly minor) and about 5,700 deaths (we normally have about 500 a year). That is considerably worse than the Hong Kong flu but no where near as bad as the 1918 Spanish flu.
I do not normally get the flu vaccine each year, as I view it as a bit of a waste of time for healthy people. I will be taking the Swine Flu vaccine when it becomes available.
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May 14 09 2:04 am
I predict we will have met the criteria for a pandemic sooner, as the most prevalent flu comming up on tests in the US is the swine flu. My prediction is that within 2 months it will be declared as a pandemic. As I expressed in my last post, we are not testing people often and the number of infected people in the US is much higher than being reported. Being a traveler from Mexico or NY is no longer required to be suspected of having the swine flu in the US. You may not get the chance to take this flu vaccine since I heard it was about 6 months from being on the shelves. All that being said, it is behaving as a mild seasonal flu, so I don’t see the need for panic. If you develop viral symptoms, and want to test yourself afterwards, you can always check titers for influenza a antibodies.
vinny’s last blog post..Swine Flu Update
May 14 09 8:38 pm
MacD – am sorry to hear that you don’t get flu vaccine each year. I don’t really care if its a mild illness or not for you – the point is you have patient contact. For some of those patients, catching seasonal influenza from you won’t be so mild.
Don’t be silly. If you wash your hands before and after patient contact and wear a mask for close contact work, you are extremely unlikely to pass on the flu. Patients would be far more likely to catch it from the checkout operator at the supermarket
May 15 09 7:39 am
of course. silly me. HCWs perform hand hygiene 100% of the time.
thats a tui ad.
May 15 09 9:33 am
We just found this video and are using it for other common sense tips on swine flu:
http://www.howcast.com/videos/180564-How-To-Prevent-and-Recognize-Symptoms-Of-Swine-Flu
Besides taking the vaccine, basics such as washing your hands really can help.
May 15 09 1:53 pm
MacD: is the pneumonia that goes with a small percentage of swine flu cases viral or bacterial?
Can anything be done for viral pneumonia beyond symptomatic treatment?
Kiwi Polemicist’s last blog post..• Swine flu: NZ Herald says it’s mutating but it’s not
It seems to be viral – caused directly by the swine flu virus. Treatment is supportive , although Tamiflu has reduced the pneumonia’s severity.