Swine Flu Update 7
The picture from Mexico now seems substantially less alarming. Far fewer people seemed to have died from the Swine Flu than previously thought and deaths are not escalating even though numbers are increasing daily. There were no deaths from Swine Flu in Mexico yesterday. If the World Health Organisation learn anything from this, it is that they need a rapidly mobile team to go in and investigate these events and get hard news. This would not only prevent unnecessary economic damage, but also determine up front whether containment is required, instead of muttering “containment is no longer possible” several weeks later.
Now the genie is out of the bottle, it seems to look more and more that the biggest casualty of Swine Flu will be a damaged global economy (Yay! More damage). Mexico is preparing to shut down the country for five days, which seems a little over the top to me. Hong Kong has quarantined an entire hotel because of a single confirmed case. The tourism industry is in meltdown, hit by a recession and a possible pandemic.
Virologists have now examined the virus and concluded that it is probably not as dangerous as initially feared. Apparently it lacks the really bad bits that made the 1918 pandemic so deadly (the NS1 protein) and it is not like bird flu (H5N1) that primarily attacked the lungs. Of course, it is next to impossible to predict what this virus will do, but it looks increasingly likely that it will turn out to be not much more than your standard seasonal flu. Maybe a little more dangerous, but certainly nothing to panic about.
I have noticed that most of the news on Swine flu has shifted (mutated?) to speculation and guesswork. I won’t be continuing with these updates if speculation and guesswork are the only news, but will post if there is any new significant facts or developments. I will, however, continue to update the sidebar when I am able.
Related posts:
- Swine flu update 6 The first person to die in the US was a...
- Swine Flu Update 10 I have been keeping tabs on the progress of Swine...
- Swine Flu update 5 Another 2 passengers from Los Angeles detained today with symptoms...
- Swine Flu update 11 Yes, it’s a week since I last posted on the...
- Swine Flu Update 16 Researches has now tracked the path of swine flu in...
May 2 09 11:32 pm
I don’t have much to add, except that with our restriction on who to test for this virus, we will not be reporting anyone with mild flu symptoms. Essentially we are told to test only those who present in respiratory failure or if they have 104F fever. So far, this doesn’t seem to fit the pattern of this flu within the US, and inaccurately reflecting very few confirmed cases here. The small rise of cases you see from cdc likely reflects those samples testing positive prior to the distribution of these testing guidelines. It sure gives the illusion that the spread of this virus is slowing. If we see someone dying from this virus, it will likely be reported widely by uninformed media people. Sadly, I don’t see how we can have an accurate assessment of the impact of this flu, under the current policy.
vinny’s last blog post..Swine Flu Update
May 3 09 1:28 am
Vinny: If we see someone dying from this virus, it will likely be reported widely by uninformed media people.
Yes. I expect lots of frenzied “Killer Virus Strikes” headlines. No one will twig that people die from complications of flu every year.
Interesting what you say about the restriction of viral testing. We have a similar restriction in New Zealand. Basically, we have been told that we have to phone the public health department to authorise viral swabs, otherwise they will be automatically discarded by the lab. Ostensibly, this is because otherwise the labs will be swamped with viral swabs. It will also have the side effect of masking the spread of the virus.
reCaptcha: their sanskrit – how appropriate