Swine flu update 6

The first person to die in the US was a 23 month old Mexican child, visiting from Mexico who became ill while in the US. Although this is a tragedy, it does not change the picture significantly as the transmission of this occurred in Mexico (i.e. it is still part of the Mexico epidemic, albeit spread to the US).  Of more significance, a case has been confirmed in Spain that had not been to Mexico. This is the first confirmed occurrence of human to human transmission outside of Mexico, meaning that we are now sure that the virus can become a pandemic (there needs to be evidence of uncontrolled spread in two countries before this is considered a true pandemic).

Accordingly, the World Health Organisation has just bumped its alert level to 5. This means that all countries should now activate their pandemic action programs. This is, of course a bit late in the day for the US, Canada, Spain – and New Zealand. The Director-General of WHO, Margaret Chan, sounds curiously unworried:

““The world is better prepared for an influenza pandemic than at any time in history,” Chan said. “For the first time in history we can track the pandemic in real time.””

Err, not quite, Ms Chan. Africa is in a worse state than it was in 1918. Air travel has increased it’s exposure to the virus but it’s people are still severely malnourished and without easy access to medical services. There are now large refugee camps in places like the congo, where influenza will be devastating. Fortunately, the virus does not like the African climate near the equator, which does seem to limit it’s spread.

I also think that South America will fare no better than Mexico as they have similar problems with access to hospitals.

Don’t you just love the way the Director-General of WHO seems to be more interested in her monitoring capabilities than in what countries are doing to stave off the spread of the virus. While it is too late to try for containment to Mexico, one can slow the spread of the disease with careful policy like isolation at home and stricter airport controls and monitoring. This is important if we do not wish for our health services to be overwhelmed. 

Lastly, New Zealand has just experienced a big jump in suspected cases as the public health services finally get stuck in to tracing everyone.

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