29 Apr

Swine Flu update 5

Published by MacDoctor on April 29th, 2009
3 Comments »

Another 2 passengers from Los Angeles detained today with symptoms of flu. The Government is now taking the same line as the World Health Organisation:

“The Government has now moved from trying to contain the outbreak to attempting to minimise it.”

This particular article contains a quote from yours truly which, I think, sums up my thoughts on swine flu.

““I am hoping this isn’t a big deal, because we’ve probably already missed the boat with containment. I think the Health Ministry has been a bit tardy, a bit relaxed.””

It feels weird quoting myself…

I am very much hoping this virus does not turn out to be as deadly as the Mexican experience indicates. The numbers for worst case scenarios are distinctly unpleasant. An Australian think-tank predicts a potential high of 51,500 death in New Zealand although the stress that a mild pandemic similar to the Hong Kong flu in 1968/9 would only result in 500 death. This is an enormous range that suggests that no-one really knows. Globally, they predict up to 142 million deaths for a 1918 Spanish flu style pandemic. A truly ugly figure.

The official New Zealand Pandemic Action plan assumes a 2% mortality and a 40% infection rate (that’s not based on this strain of flu, that is just the planning scenario figures). This gives 1.6 million cases and 33,000 deaths (again, purely theoretically). With numbers like these, the only possible method of treatment is home-based. Hospitals would be completely swamped with just the 33,000 sick enough to die, let alone the rest. Roving teams of nurses would have to go house-to-house to keep an eye on the sicker patients and decide which ones really need hospitalization.

And for those of you who still think this flu is no worse than any other here is a story from a New Zealander who caught the flu in Mexico and became really sick. Clearly, he had the pneumonic version. If you get these symptoms, you need hospital treatment.

The BBC has a nice graphical representation of the timeline of swine flu here.

Israeli Deputy Health Minister Yakov Litzman requests that we call the disease “Mexican Influenza” because the name “Swine flu” is offensive to Jews and Muslims. I think he is missing the point a bit here. I suspect most of his fellow countrymen don’t mind what we call it, as long it doesn’t kill them.

Oh and Kathleen Sebelius has been confirmed as the new Health Secretary in the US. Welcome to seriously deep do do, Kathleen. You still have time to quit.