Swine Flu (Update 1)
The Centre for Disease Control in the US have declared a public health emergency over the swine flu potential epidemic/pandemic. They have confirmed eight cases in New York City, seven in California, two in Texas, two in Kansas, and one in Ohio, meaning this is substantially more widespread than originally thought. These are all properly confirmed A/H1N1 swine flu cases, not supposed cases as in New Zealand. WHO still have no travel advisory out and are awaiting more information before changing the alert level, currently sitting at 3. They will discuss it in committee, God help us.
At least the CDC (who do not function solely by committee) have already released 25% of their stock of antivirals in preparation. The New Zealand government has also released some of its stock of 1.4 million courses. However our public health service is only now tracing the passengers of the same flight that the 10 probably-infected NZ schoolboys came in on.
Worrying aspects of this virus is that most of the deaths have been from pneumonia in the 25-45 age group, indicating a fairly virulent strain. Also the virus seems to spread quite easily. Reassuring aspects are that none of the deaths have occurred outside of Mexico (indicating that poor, unprepared medical facilities may have been a significant factor) and that the virus does appear to respond to antivirals.
We have had strains of swine flu before. There was the nasty one in 1918 which killed at least 20 million people (some estimates as high as 50 million) but we have had multiple outbreaks since, mostly very mild. Because of this, we probably have a substantial pool of people who have considerable immunity to this strain and are likely to either not catch it, or have a very mild dose of it. But the potential for a serious pandemic is much greater than for the previous bird flu scare, even though bird flu was a more serious disease. Bird flu was never transmissible from human to human, the prerequisite for a pandemic.
Considering the massive over-reaction that occurred with bird flu, one would have hoped for a somewhat more vigorous response to this one than simple monitoring. I would have thought isolation of cases and restriction of travel to Mexico would have been a minimum response until we have more data. Since the CDC is now waking up probably about a week too late and the WHO insists on sitting on its hands, New Zealand’s lackadaisical response looks almost brisk in comparison.
While this might indeed be another non-event, it would be nice if health authorities made that call in hindsight rather than apparently up-front with incomplete information.
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- Global Voices Online » Global Health: Swine Flu Threat Spreads Worldwide — [...] In New Zeland, 13 students who recently visited Mexico are suspected of having the disease. McVeagh says: “Considering the ...
- Global Voices auf Deutsch » Weltgesundheit: Bedrohung durch Schweinegrippe wächst weltweit — [...] besteht bei 13 Studenten, die vor Kurzem in Mexiko waren, der Verdacht auf die Krankheit. McVeagh sagt: “Angesichts der ...
- Global Voices in het Nederlands » Gezondheid: Dreiging varkensgriep verspreidt zich over de wereld — [...] 13 studenten [en] die onlangs in Mexico zijn geweest vermoedelijk met de ziekte besmet. McVeagh schrijft [en]: “Gezien de ...
- Global Voices in Italiano » Salute globale: si diffonde la minaccia dell’influenza suina — [...] che recentemente hanno visitato il Messico sono sospettati di aver contratto la malattia. McVeagh afferma [in]: “Considerando l'eccessiva reazione ...
Apr 27 09 2:43 pm
As dire is the economy and fragile is the reported recovery, and secretive is Fed, what would one expect by way of reaction?
Despite our tested stress a catalyst of any sort may cause terminal damage. Come to think of it this is an actual stress test on our system. Misinformation is a wrong answer to that test!
It will only truly test the systems in place if swine flu turns out to be dangerous and pandemic. Misinformation is only a test of government response systems (so far testing quite poorly, IMHO).
Apr 27 09 3:12 pm
Be interesting to see what if any impact this swine flu issue has on the desire of some to increase urban density afterall some will argue that increased density will help diseases spread.
Nah. It will make no difference to urban density unless Swine Flu turns us all into flesh-eating Zombies…
Apr 27 09 5:45 pm
This came in the mail earlier today (I have deleted out the names and email address so spam doesn’t grab them:
From: Kristine K.
Sent: Sunday, 26 April 2009 9:36 p.m.
To: Principal
Cc:
Subject: Urgent: Public Health advice
Urgent: Advice from Public Health Authorities – Investigation into Influenza like symptoms among students returning from a school trip to Mexico
Attached is information from the Auckland Regional Public Health Service about investigations into an influenza-like illness amongst a group of 25 people from Rangitoto College, on Auckland’s North Shore, following the group’s return on Saturday from a school trip to Mexico. Concerns are heightened because of the outbreak of swine influenza in Mexico and some areas in the United States.
The attachment outlines the essential steps that schools and all organisations will need to take to minimise risks particularly given that students may have been in affected areas during the holiday break either with families or school arranged trips.
You will be aware from news reports that US and international health authorities are still investigatiing the nature of the virus. In the meantime it is strongly recommended that schools follow the precautions outlined in the attached and at the same time ensure that pandemic plans and procedures are upto date.
The Ministry’s website outlines information for schools on pandemic readiness. If you need any further information please contact your local Ministry regional office.
Kristine K
Deputy Secretary
People and Business Capability
Ministry of Education
If you are unable to access the attached Word Document, it is available for download here:
http://www.e-admintraining.co.nz/downloads/advisory/Influenza-like_illness_in_returning_travellers_Media_Release_20090426.pdf
Apr 27 09 8:58 pm
My latest web comic about the whole thing:
http://bit.ly/t9R4D
Apr 27 09 9:07 pm
xkcd is onto it too
http://xkcd.com/574/