Cross Purposes
The media is making much of the apparent contradiction between Bill English’s take on the economy and John Key’s. I think that the differences between them are much more perceived than real, and that there is a strong element of talking cross purposes here.
What appears to be happening is that Key is talking about the recovery of the New Zealand business and banking community, whereas English is focussed on the global economy and the state of the government’s books, both of which are looking considerably more grim than the business world. Of course, it does not help that Bill English has the outlook of a dour southland farmer (all that presbyterian stock) and Key has a naturally upbeat disposition.
So who is right? Well, they probably both are. There will most likely be some good recovery in businesses next year, with only the export businesses lagging. Export recovery is likely to take much longer as the protectionist mood sweeps around the world, doing much more damage than the CDO debacle ever could. Government books are likely to stay red for many years.
As for the cycle-way - did anyone really think that the government was just going to whip out $50 million in one year? English is correct, though excessively direct about it (it would be nice if he could couch it a little less bluntly) – the cycle-way is going to be built gradually over years, but it will be built.
Apart from differences in style and focus, I don’t think there is much disparity between the two. However, English does increase the perception of differences between himself and the Prime Minister and needs to be far more careful with how he words things. After all, it is perception that counts in politics and currently the media seems determined to cultivate the differences between English and Key to maximum effect.
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- Topics about Banking » Cross Purposes — [...] MacDoctor added an interesting post on Cross PurposesHere’s a small excerptThe media is making much of the apparent contradiction ...
Apr 6 09 1:26 pm
“If the Chancellor of the Exchequer is popular, he is not doing his job properly.”
Apr 6 09 1:51 pm
Wow! $50 million! Do actually have any idea what that would be as a percentage of total government spending? It’s less than 1%.
National, as they did with the “mother of all budgets” in 1990, is looking to cut back spending in the context of a global recession. As it did in the early 1990s, this will have the effect of deepening and prolonging the recession. Wages will stagnate and unemployment will soar, as will child poverty levels. National will use the hardship that they inflict, to justify the introduction of further regressive policies that offer higher profits for large overseas-owned firms.
http://rogernome.blogspot.com/2008/08/new-right-revolution-business-profits.html
NZ is in for one hell of a rough ride. It’s in times like this that we need songs like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zy3CeI0FCY
It ain’t going to be pretty.
Apr 6 09 4:37 pm
“did anyone really think that the government was just going to whip out $50 million in one year”
Well, yes. IIRC the cycle way was one of 20 outcomes from the Prime Minister’s Job Summit. Most major western economies appear to be using additional govt spending as a lever to lift economic activity to combat the recession. 50m isn’t much in comparison to the 2bn for tax cuts for middle + upper income earners and non-families. So I see no reason to believe a cycle way couldn’t have been built over 2009 – 2010 and help combat job losses from the the recession.
So I think there is an contradiction here, but I am not sure which one it is. Either
(1) English has killed / neutered Key’s cycleway idea, or
(2) The outcomes from the Job Summit were never seriously intended to be implemented.
Either makes a story.
Apr 6 09 5:11 pm
Mac
You seem to suffer trolls more than I do. It must be your HoS profile.
I tend to agree the Key/English thing is a beat -up.
When English fronts the media you see why he was not effective as National’s Leader, he just does not project well. Indeed, often he does not project as well as say Cullen or Cunliffe. He is competent, but for a politician in many ways he can appear off putting.
However, we need to consider another factor Key and English have been reported as working well together.
Consequently, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they have strategised a ‘good cop’, bad cop scenario which projects the party and the PM, but puts the truth out there.
Now that seems very plausible.
Sheesh, i should have posted this at my place.
Never mond
Apr 6 09 7:15 pm
Adam: Yes, you should tease that out a bit and post at your place. It is entirely possible you are right. It would be a risky strategy, but entirely in keeping with Key’s psychology. He seems to like to draw fire into the one place that is least vulnerable. It worked well in the election when he virtually invited Labour’s attack, deflection their attention away from everthing else. I note that this later Key/English disagreement comes right on top of the potentially dangerous Worth episode.
It also enables any fiscal disappointments in the budget to be the fault of “Evil Bill”.